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Your point about unpredictability is really interesting Martin. As a former scientist and wife of an active science researcher, my feeling is that many scientists have been so battered by funding models that work on closed ideas, rewarding the individual not the community that they cannot begin to think about being open and sharing. Alan often cites a classic occasion where we attempted to introduce some of our colleagues to delicious and RSS. One researcher commented with glee - 'now I'll know what my competitor is reading!' - but flat out refused to share his own bookmarks. I think that scientists do want to be shown predictable benefits, but we can't do that yet - publishing in an open journal with no impact factor doesn't get you grants (yet). Scientists are much more aware of the risks (loss of data, being scooped) than they are of the benefits.

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