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I totally agree. Facebook's days are counted. With data portability available, people will choose platforms less cluttered.
I think you will write about twitter in a years time. It's a bubble and it will burst.

Sue Waters

Absolutely love the photo you have chosen. Totally agree with your statement regarding "You only understand by doing it." Definitely I'm not a fan of Facebook, and there are many like me, however I wonder if we will really see a big decline or will it be a case more options means people will each have their preferred platforms? Not explaining myself well e.g. at work, one colleague prefers contact by phone and rarely uses email, I prefer email, another forget email or phone call only f2f will work. So social networking sites proliferate will people end up choosing sites depending on their own preferences.

My thoughts with students, in terms of their own personal learning networks, they will choose their own methods of assisting one another - depending on their own preferences.

Twitter mmmmmm. No predictions either way :).


Robojiannis - you may be right about Twitter, when everyone joins it will become unmanageable. What it has going for it though is its simplicity - it does just the one thing and if you like doing that, then you'll carry on. FB became a platform for everything which was part of its appeal, but ultimately its downfall too.
Sue - I think you're right about the preferred types of communications. I think it will be very disaggregated - you will communicate with people in a variety of ways, often a myriad means for the same people. In fact, I was just going to do a blog post on this very topic...

AJ Cann

Choice. Multiple platforms. Open-ness. That's the future. You say Twitter, I say del.icio.us (Let's call the whole thing off...) RSS. Mmmm. Incoherent acronym fog.

Sue Waters

Well the key with Twitter will be in your effective management of your network - limiting the number you follow to a manageable level. I like how Alan Levine is using TweetScan to manage his network. Doesn't add all followers instead subscribes to TweetScan for cogdog so if a follower (who he doesn't follow) talks to him he can respond back. As more people join twitter we will need to be harsher in who we follow.

Wait in interest for your blog post on social networking and disaggregated.

Interesting AJ that you mention del.icio.us - sure I use it but not as much as I used to. Become lazy with Google Reader and more likely to search within Google Reader for the posts. Which is really bad. Used to have lots of people share links with me using del.icio.us but now only every now and them. Perhaps because I didn't share enough link love? Or maybe they have changed how they use the different applications also?

AJ Cann

Your point about network management (which could bring us on to multiple online identities) is a good one Sue, and applies to del.icio.us as much as to Twitter or any other network. I use the del.icio.us search options as a way of intelligent filtering, but that will only be as intelligent as my network.


good post, great photo!


Is the dog you are holding a Vizsla? We raise them.


Mazie - no it's just a labrador - came from a litter of chocolate labs but came out a different colour.

Matt McGraw

Greetings from the US!

I am wondering what you think will be the site or, perhaps more to the point, the technology which will replace the twitters and the facebooks and the myspaces. It seems to you, and to your readers, the demise of facebook is a foregone conclusion, but I see no signs of that here in the States. Many of my friends (I'm 32) are leaving myspace behind in favor of facebook. What are the tech-savvy throngs of UK-er's doing for social networking?

Thanks for writing this blog, I enjoy reading your thoughts.


Rusty Weston

Folks, these allegations are entirely off-base. FB is growing at the rate of 2 million new subscribers each week. Hardly a sign of decline! I’m conducting a research study that has 350+ respondents (and counting) from more than 20 nations and five continents, one-third women, nearly half are students. And most people belong to more than one site and spend the majority of their time on one, which is only natural. My study compares how people use these sites personally and professionaly – the differences are quite sharp. The people who just use it for fun generally are blind to other possibilities (like looking for a job), but I believe that will change over time. Sure, most FB apps are silly, but they don’t have to be, that’s just what the market is churning through at the moment. You’re welcome to check out this study at http://s-kf7uz-25818.sgizmo.com/


Hi Matt and Rusty, thanks for the comments - I don't think FB will necessarily decline, but I said it would be the year we stop loving it. And when I say 'we' I'm probably thinking of ed techie people. There is still a big chunk of the distribution curve that will take it up. So it'll probably increase this year, but that's a different thing from being the app you love.
I think most of us will have an FB (or other site) profile, but just not use it much. As for the future - I think it will be more disaggregated. So you have more focused tools e.g. twitter, which you, almost by accident, acrue around yourself, each performing different tasks. Think of it like a big widget collection on your blog.
Some have taken this post as FB bashing - it wasn't meant that way, just to say that the honeymoon period is over, and I wanted to reflect on the good things it had taught me.
Of course, I could be wrong, that's why I'm not rich!

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